The problem for Romney in Nevada is — and always has been — the Hispanic vote. According to the 2010 Census, roughly three in ten (27 percent) residents of Nevada are Hispanic and President Obama is winning them with massive majorities. (A Nevada poll conducted by Latino Decisions last month showed Obama winning Hispanic voters 78 percent to 17 percent.)
The strength of organized labor — particularly the Culinary Workers Union — in Las Vegas (Clark County) also works heavily in Obama’s favor. As Jon Ralston, the top political reporter and analyst in the state, notes that Democrats have a 70,000 early vote edge in the county.
Writes Ralston: “The credible polls on both sides would have to be wrong — i.e. Romney would have to win independents by a large margin — for him to win Nevada.”
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